The U.S. Cities That Theoretically Could Face the Highest Risk in a Nuclear Emergency

NATO Allied Countries Would Face Widespread Targeting

While concrete data on which NATO countries Russia would target remains classified, Russian officials have made their intentions clear through public statements. Dmitry Rogozin, former head of Russia’s Roscosmos space agency, declared in May 2022 that “in a nuclear war, NATO countries will be destroyed by us in half an hour”. This provocative claim, while potentially exaggerated, reflects Russia’s view of NATO as an existential threat. The statement makes all NATO member states extremely dangerous places to be if nuclear conflict erupts between Russia and the United States.

Russia has been expanding its nuclear capabilities into neighboring Belarus, increasing the number of tactical weapons deployed at NATO’s border. Moscow announced in March 2023 that it would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus through Iskander short-range ballistic missiles and gravity bombs for fighter aircraft. Belarus confirmed receipt of these weapons in December 2023, marking the first time Russia placed nuclear arms outside its borders since the Soviet Union collapsed. This deployment mirrors NATO’s nuclear sharing practice, in which NATO stations U.S. weapons in Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Turkey, and, recently, again in the United Kingdom.

President Putin modified Russia’s nuclear doctrine in November 2024, stating that Russia would treat a conventional attack by an ally of a nuclear state as grounds for launching a nuclear strike. This lowered threshold means any NATO country providing military support to forces attacking Russia could face nuclear retaliation. The doctrine creates ambiguity about the exact conditions triggering nuclear use, allowing Putin maximum flexibility while maximizing NATO’s uncertainty. Germany, Poland, France, and other NATO allies actively supporting Ukraine face particularly elevated risks under this expanded doctrine.